A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
